Decline of onset-to-diagnosis interval and its impacts on clinical outcome of COVID-19 in China: a nation-wide observational study.

BACKGROUND: To quantitatively assess the impact of the onset-to-diagnosis interval (ODI) on severity and death for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted based on the data on COVID-19 cases of China over the age of 40 years reported through China's National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System from February 5, 2020 to October 8, 2020. The impacts of ODI on severe rate (SR) and case fatality rate (CFR) were evaluated at individual and population levels, which was further disaggregated by sex, age and geographic origin. RESULTS: As the rapid decline of ODI from around 40 days in early January to < 3 days in early March, both CFR and SR of COVID-19 largely dropped below 5% in China. After adjusting for age, sex, and region, an effect of ODI on SR was observed with the highest OR of 2.95 (95% CI 2.37‒3.66) at Day 10-11 and attributable fraction (AF) of 29.1% (95% CI 22.2‒36.1%) at Day 8-9. However, little effect of ODI on CFR was observed. Moreover, discrepancy of effect magnitude was found, showing a greater effect from ODI on SR among patients of male sex, younger age, and those cases in Wuhan. CONCLUSION: The ODI was significantly associated with the severity of COVID-19, highlighting the importance of timely diagnosis, especially for patients who were confirmed to gain increased benefit from early diagnosis to some extent.

The role of selenium in severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome: an integrative analysis of surveillance data and clinical data.

OBJECTIVES: Selenium deficiency can be associated with increased susceptibility to some viral infections and even more severe diseases. In this study, we aimed to examine whether this association applies to severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS). METHOD: An observational study was conducted based on the data of 13,305 human SFTS cases reported in mainland China from 2010 to 2020. The associations among incidence, case fatality rate of SFTS, and crop selenium concentration at the county level were explored. The selenium level in a cohort of patients with SFTS was tested, and its relationship with clinical outcomes was evaluated. RESULTS: The association between selenium-deficient crops and the incidence rate of SFTS was confirmed by multivariate Poisson analysis, with an estimated incidence rate ratio (IRR, 95% confidence interval [CI]) of 4.549 (4.215-4.916) for moderate selenium-deficient counties and 16.002 (14.706-17.431) for severe selenium-deficient counties. In addition, a higher mortality rate was also observed in severe selenium-deficient counties with an IRR of 1.409 (95% CI: 1.061-1.909). A clinical study on 120 patients with SFTS showed an association between serum selenium deficiency and severe SFTS (odds ratio, OR: 2.94; 95% CI: 1.00-8.67) or fatal SFTS (OR: 7.55; 95% CI: 1.14-50.16). CONCLUSION: Selenium deficiency is associated with increased susceptibility to SFTS and poor clinical outcomes.

Plasma glucose levels and diabetes are independent predictors for mortality in patients with COVID-19.

This study is performed to figure out how the presence of diabetes affects the infection, progression and prognosis of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and the effective therapy that can treat the diabetes-complicated patients with COVID-19. A multicentre study was performed in four hospitals. COVID-19 patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) or hyperglycaemia were compared with those without these conditions and matched by propensity score matching for their clinical progress and outcome. Totally, 2444 confirmed COVID-19 patients were recruited, from whom 336 had DM. Compared to 1344 non-DM patients with age and sex matched, DM-COVID-19 patients had significantly higher rates of intensive care unit entrance (12.43% vs. 6.58%, P = 0.014), kidney failure (9.20% vs. 4.05%, P = 0.027) and mortality (25.00% vs. 18.15%, P < 0.001). Age and sex-stratified comparison revealed increased susceptibility to COVID-19 only from females with DM. For either non-DM or DM group, hyperglycaemia was associated with adverse outcomes, featured by higher rates of severe pneumonia and mortality, in comparison with non-hyperglycaemia. This was accompanied by significantly altered laboratory indicators including lymphocyte and neutrophil percentage, C-reactive protein and urea nitrogen level, all with correlation coefficients >0.35. Both diabetes and hyperglycaemia were independently associated with adverse prognosis of COVID-19, with hazard ratios of 10.41 and 3.58, respectively.

Clinical characteristics and risk factors for severe scrub typhus in pediatric and elderly patients.

BACKGROUND: Scrub typhus (ST) is a life-threatening infectious disease if appropriate treatment is unavailable. Large discrepancy of clinical severity of ST patients was reported among age groups, and the underlying risk factors for severe disease are unclear. METHODS: Clinical and epidemiological data of ST patients were collected in 55 surveillance hospitals located in Guangzhou City, China, from 2012 to 2018. Severe prognosis and related factors were determined and compared between pediatric and elderly patients. RESULTS: A total of 2,074 ST patients including 209 pediatric patients and 1,865 elderly patients were included, with a comparable disease severity rate of 11.0% (95% CI 7.1%-16.1%) and 10.3% (95% CI 9.0%-11.8%). Different frequencies of clinical characteristics including lymphadenopathy, skin rash, enlarged tonsils, etc. were observed between pediatric and elderly patients. Presence of peripheral edema and decreased hemoglobin were the most important predictors of severe illness in pediatric patients with adjusted ORs by 38.99 (9.96-152.67, p<0.001) and 13.22 (1.54-113.50, p = 0.019), respectively, while presence of dyspnea and increased total bilirubin were the potential determinants of severe disease in elderly patients with adjusted ORs by 11.69 (7.33-18.64, p<0.001) and 3.17 (1.97-5.11, p<0.001), respectively. Compared with pediatric patients, elderly patients were more likely to receive doxycycline (64.8% v.s 9.9%, p<0.001), while less likely to receive azithromycin therapy (5.0% v.s 41.1%, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: The disease severity rate is comparable between pediatric and elderly ST patients, while different clinical features and laboratory indicators were associated with development of severe complications for pediatric and elderly patients, which is helpful for diagnosis and progress assessment of disease for ST patients.

Epidemiological features of COVID-19 patients with prolonged incubation period and its implications for controlling the epidemics in China.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 patients with long incubation period were reported in clinical practice and tracing of close contacts, but their epidemiological or clinical features remained vague. METHODS: We analyzed 11,425 COVID-19 cases reported between January-August, 2020 in China. The accelerated failure time model, Logistic and modified Poisson regression models were used to investigate the determinants of prolonged incubation period, as well as their association with clinical severity and transmissibility, respectively. RESULT: Among local cases, 268 (10.2%) had a prolonged incubation period of > 14 days, which was more frequently seen among elderly patients, those residing in South China, with disease onset after Level I response measures administration, or being exposed in public places. Patients with prolonged incubation period had lower risk of severe illness (ORadjusted = 0.386, 95% CI: 0.203-0.677). A reduced transmissibility was observed for the primary patients with prolonged incubation period (50.4, 95% CI: 32.3-78.6%) than those with an incubation period of ≤14 days. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides evidence supporting a prolonged incubation period that exceeded 2 weeks in over 10% for COVID-19. Longer monitoring periods than 14 days for quarantine or persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2 should be justified in extreme cases, especially for those elderly.

Changes in notifiable infectious disease incidence in China during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Nationwide nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been effective at mitigating the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), but their broad impact on other diseases remains under-investigated. Here we report an ecological analysis comparing the incidence of 31 major notifiable infectious diseases in China in 2020 to the average level during 2014-2019, controlling for temporal phases defined by NPI intensity levels. Respiratory diseases and gastrointestinal or enteroviral diseases declined more than sexually transmitted or bloodborne diseases and vector-borne or zoonotic diseases. Early pandemic phases with more stringent NPIs were associated with greater reductions in disease incidence. Non-respiratory diseases, such as hand, foot and mouth disease, rebounded substantially towards the end of the year 2020 as the NPIs were relaxed. Statistical modeling analyses confirm that strong NPIs were associated with a broad mitigation effect on communicable diseases, but resurgence of non-respiratory diseases should be expected when the NPIs, especially restrictions of human movement and gathering, become less stringent.

Etiological and epidemiological features of acute respiratory infections in China.

Nationwide prospective surveillance of all-age patients with acute respiratory infections was conducted in China between 2009‒2019. Here we report the etiological and epidemiological features of the 231,107 eligible patients enrolled in this analysis. Children <5 years old and school-age children have the highest viral positivity rate (46.9%) and bacterial positivity rate (30.9%). Influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus and human rhinovirus are the three leading viral pathogens with proportions of 28.5%, 16.8% and 16.7%, and Streptococcus pneumoniae, Mycoplasma pneumoniae and Klebsiella pneumoniae are the three leading bacterial pathogens (29.9%, 18.6% and 15.8%). Negative interactions between viruses and positive interactions between viral and bacterial pathogens are common. A Join-Point analysis reveals the age-specific positivity rate and how this varied for individual pathogens. These data indicate that differential priorities for diagnosis, prevention and control should be highlighted in terms of acute respiratory tract infection patients' demography, geographic locations and season of illness in China.

The changing pattern of enteric pathogen infections in China during the COVID-19 pandemic: a nation-wide observational study.

BACKGROUND: Non pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) including hand washing directives were implemented in China and worldwide to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, which are likely to have had impacted a broad spectrum of enteric pathogen infections. METHODS: Etiologically diagnostic data from 45 937 and 67 395 patients with acute diarrhea between 2012 and 2020, who were tested for seven viral pathogens and 13 bacteria respectively, were analyzed to assess the changes of enteric pathogen infections in China during the first COVID-19 pandemic year compared to pre-pandemic years. FINDINGS: Test positive rates of all enteric viruses decreased during 2020, compared to the average levels during 2012-2019, with a relative decrease of 71•75% for adenovirus, 58•76% for norovirus, 53•50% for rotavirus A, and 72•07% for the combination of other four uncommon viruses. In general, a larger reduction of positive rate in viruses was seen among adults than pediatric patients. A rebound of rotavirus A was seen after September 2020 in North China rather than South China. Test positive rates of bacteria decreased during 2020, compared to the average levels during 2012-2019, excepting for nontyphoidal Salmonella and Campylobacter coli with 66•53% and 90•48% increase respectively. This increase was larger for pediatric patients than for adult patients. INTERPRETATION: The activity of enteric pathogens changed profoundly alongside the NPIs implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic in China. Greater reductions of the test positive rates were found for almost all enteric viruses than for bacteria among acute diarrhea patients, with further large differences by age and geography. Lifting of NPIs will lead to resurgence of enteric pathogen infections, particularly in children whose immunity may not have been developed and/or waned. FUNDING: China Mega-Project on Infectious Disease Prevention; National Natural Science Funds.

The differential demographic pattern of coronavirus disease 2019 fatality outside Hubei and from six hospitals in Hubei, China: a descriptive analysis.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has been largely controlled in China, to the point where case fatality rate (CFR) data can be comprehensively evaluated. METHODS: Data on confirmed patients, with a final outcome reported as of 29 March 2020, were obtained from official websites and other internet sources. The hospitalized CFR (HCFR) was estimated, epidemiological features described, and risk factors for a fatal outcome identified. RESULTS: The overall HCFR in China was estimated to be 4.6% (95% CI 4.5-4.8%, P < 0.001). It increased with age and was higher in males than females. Although the highest HCFR observed was in male patients ≥70 years old, the relative risks for death outcome by sex varied across age groups, and the greatest HCFR risk ratio for males vs. females was shown in the age group of 50-60 years, higher than age groups of 60-70 and ≥ 70 years. Differential age/sex HCFR patterns across geographical regions were found: the age effect on HCFR was greater in other provinces outside Hubei than in Wuhan. An effect of longer interval from symptom onset to admission was only observed outside Hubei, not in Wuhan. By performing multivariate analysis and survival analysis, the higher HCFR was associated with older age (both P < 0.001), and male sex (both P < 0.001). Only in regions outside Hubei, longer interval from symptom onset to admission, were associated with higher HCFR. CONCLUSIONS: This up-to-date and comprehensive picture of COVID-19 HCFR and its drivers will help healthcare givers target limited medical resources to patients with high risk of fatality.

Association between fatality rate of COVID-19 and selenium deficiency in China.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has impacted populations around the world, with the fatality rate varying dramatically across countries. Selenium, as one of the important micronutrients implicated in viral infections, was suggested to play roles. METHODS: An ecological study was performed to assess the association between the COVID-19 related fatality and the selenium content both from crops and topsoil, in China. RESULTS: Totally, 14,045 COVID-19 cases were reported from 147 cities during 8 December 2019-13 December 2020 were included. Based on selenium content in crops, the case fatality rates (CFRs) gradually increased from 1.17% in non-selenium-deficient areas, to 1.28% in moderate-selenium-deficient areas, and further to 3.16% in severe-selenium-deficient areas (P = 0.002). Based on selenium content in topsoil, the CFRs gradually increased from 0.76% in non-selenium-deficient areas, to 1.70% in moderate-selenium-deficient areas, and further to 1.85% in severe-selenium-deficient areas (P < 0.001). The zero-inflated negative binomial regression model showed a significantly higher fatality risk in cities with severe-selenium-deficient selenium content in crops than non-selenium-deficient cities, with incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 3.88 (95% CIs: 1.21-12.52), which was further confirmed by regression fitting the association between CFR of COVID-19 and selenium content in topsoil, with the IRR of 2.38 (95% CIs: 1.14-4.98) for moderate-selenium-deficient cities and 3.06 (1.49-6.27) for severe-selenium-deficient cities. CONCLUSIONS: Regional selenium deficiency might be related to an increased CFR of COVID-19. Future studies are needed to explore the associations between selenium status and disease outcome at individual-level.

Proteasome activator PA28γ-dependent degradation of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) nucleocapsid protein.

The nucleocapsid protein is significant in the formation of viral RNA of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), accounting for the largest proportion of viral structural proteins. Here, we report for the first time that the 11S proteasomal activator PA28γ regulates the intracellular abundance of the SARS-CoV-2 N protein (nCoV N). Furthermore, we have identified proteasome activator PA28γ as a nCoV N binding protein by co-immunoprecipitation assay. As a result of their interaction, nCoV N could be degraded by PA28γ-20S in vitro degradation assay. This was also demonstrated by blocking de novo protein synthesis with cycloheximide. The stability of nCoV N in PA28γ-knockout cells was greater than in PA28γ-wildtype cells. Notably, immunofluorescence staining revealed that knockout of the PA28γ gene in cells led to the transport of nCoV N from the nucleus to the cytoplasm. Overexpression of PA28γ enhanced proteolysis of nCoV N compared to that in PA28γ-N151Y cells containing a dominant-negative PA28γ mutation, which reduced this process. These results suggest that PA28γ binding is important in regulating 20S proteasome activity, which in turn regulates levels of the critical nCoV N nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2, furthering our understanding of the pathogenesis of COVID-19.

Comparison of detection rate of 16 sampling methods for respiratory viruses: a Bayesian network meta-analysis of clinical data and systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory viruses (RVs) is a common cause of illness in people of all ages, at present, different types of sampling methods are available for respiratory viral diagnosis. However, the diversity of available sampling methods and the limited direct comparisons in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) make decision-making difficult. We did a network meta-analysis, which accounted for both direct and indirect comparisons, to determine the detection rate of different sampling methods for RVs. METHODS: Relevant articles were retrieved comprehensively by searching the online databases of PubMed, Embase and Cochrane published before 25 March 2020. With the help of R V.3.6.3 software and 'GeMTC V.0.8.2' package, network meta-analysis was performed within a Bayesian framework. Node-splitting method and I2 test combined leverage graphs and Gelman-Rubin-Brooks plots were conducted to evaluate the model's accuracy. The rank probabilities in direct and cumulative rank plots were also incorporated to rank the corresponding sampling methods for overall and specific virus. RESULTS: 16 sampling methods with 54 438 samples from 57 literatures were ultimately involved in this study. The model indicated good consistency and convergence but high heterogeneity, hence, random-effect analysis was applied. The top three sampling methods for RVs were nasopharyngeal wash (NPW), mid-turbinate swab (MTS) and nasopharyngeal swab (NPS). Despite certain differences, the results of virus-specific subanalysis were basically consistent with RVs: MTS, NPW and NPS for influenza; MTS, NPS and NPW for influenza-a and b; saliva, NPW and NPS for rhinovirus and parainfluenza; NPW, MTS and nasopharyngeal aspirate for respiratory syncytial virus; saliva, NPW and MTS for adenovirus and sputum; MTS and NPS for coronavirus. CONCLUSION: This network meta-analysis provides supporting evidences that NPW, MTS and NPS have higher diagnostic value regarding RVs infection, moreover, particular preferred methods should be considered in terms of specific virus pandemic. Of course, subsequent RCTs with larger samples are required to validate our findings.

Epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and its implication for infectivity among patients in China, 1 January to 11 February 2020.

BackgroundThe natural history of disease in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remained obscure during the early pandemic.AimOur objective was to estimate epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and assess the relative infectivity of the incubation period.MethodsWe estimated the distributions of four epidemiological parameters of SARS-CoV-2 transmission using a large database of COVID-19 cases and potential transmission pairs of cases, and assessed their heterogeneity by demographics, epidemic phase and geographical region. We further calculated the time of peak infectivity and quantified the proportion of secondary infections during the incubation period.ResultsThe median incubation period was 7.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.9‒7.5) days. The median serial and generation intervals were similar, 4.7 (95% CI: 4.2‒5.3) and 4.6 (95% CI: 4.2‒5.1) days, respectively. Paediatric cases < 18 years had a longer incubation period than adult age groups (p = 0.007). The median incubation period increased from 4.4 days before 25 January to 11.5 days after 31 January (p < 0.001), whereas the median serial (generation) interval contracted from 5.9 (4.8) days before 25 January to 3.4 (3.7) days after. The median time from symptom onset to discharge was also shortened from 18.3 before 22 January to 14.1 days after. Peak infectivity occurred 1 day before symptom onset on average, and the incubation period accounted for 70% of transmission.ConclusionThe high infectivity during the incubation period led to short generation and serial intervals, necessitating aggressive control measures such as early case finding and quarantine of close contacts.

Meteorological conditions and nonpharmaceutical interventions jointly determined local transmissibility of COVID-19 in 41 Chinese cities: A retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Before effective vaccines become widely available, sufficient understanding of the impacts of climate, human movement and non-pharmaceutical interventions on the transmissibility of COVID-19 is needed but still lacking. METHODS: We collected by crowdsourcing a database of 11 003 COVID-19 cases from 305 cities outside Hubei Province from December 31, 2019 to April 27, 2020. We estimated the daily effective reproduction numbers (Rt ) of COVID-19 in 41 cities where the crowdsourced case data are comparable to the official surveillance data. The impacts of meteorological variables, human movement indices and nonpharmaceutical emergency responses on Rt were evaluated with generalized estimation equation models. FINDINGS: The median Rt was 0•46 (IQR: 0•37-0•87) in the northern cities, higher than 0•20 (IQR: 0•09-0•52) in the southern cities (p=0•004). A higher local transmissibility of COVID-19 was associated with a low temperature, a relative humidity near 70-75%, and higher intracity and intercity human movement. An increase in temperature from 0℃ to 20℃ would reduce Rt by 30% (95 CI 10-46%). A further increase to 30℃ would result in another 17% (95% CI 5-27%) reduction. An increase in relative humidity from 40% to 75% would raise the transmissibility by 47% (95% CI 9-97%), but a further increase to 90% would reduce the transmissibility by 12% (95% CI 4-19%). The decrease in intracity human movement as a part of the highest-level emergency response in China reduced the transmissibility by 36% (95% CI 27-44%), compared to 5% (95% CI 1-9%) for restricting intercity transport. Other nonpharmaceutical interventions further reduced Rt by 39% (95% CI 31-47%). INTERPRETATION: Climate can affect the transmission of COVID-19 where effective interventions are implemented. Restrictions on intracity human movement may be needed in places where other nonpharmaceutical interventions are unable to mitigate local transmission. FUNDING: China Mega-Project on Infectious Disease Prevention; U.S. National Institutes of Health and National Science Foundation.